Okavango Delta Floods expected...

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Experts predict a ‘massive' flood

By Bright Kholi and Kelereeditse Kedisitswe

The flood coming down into Thamalakane and Boro Rivers is anticipated to be a massive one, more than the one received last year. The flood will be so massive that even experts in hydrology have started giving warning tips to those on flood plains to be alert as they may find their houses submerged when the water gets to Maun. In the panhandle, villages have already been seriously affected and some residents have been moved to higher ground. The latest is Etsha 13, which has been placed on high alert as homesteads are flooded for the first time in decades. As the race against time gains momentum, government officials, the private sector and academics are putting their heads together to discuss the possible eventualities. This week, Piotr Wolski, an Associate Professor with the Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre in Maun, told a meeting on the flood situation that there is no doubt that the flood this year will be higher than last year. Wolski says that the hydrology models he uses to analyse the flood shows a very significant increase, adding that this is compounded by heasvy rains and moiré water entering the Okavango River at Mohembo. This, according to Wolski, will lead to about 80 to 100 cm of water, higher than last year's last years levels in the Thamalakane River.

Wolski says there is every reason for people to be worried. He said the change in flood levels as a natural phenomenon and which is also a return of the system to the times when heavy floods were experienced. This, he says, may not go away very soon - “we might be experiencing increased floods for say the next 5 years if not 20.” Wolski expects this year's flood to reach Mopipi in the Boteti. Meanwhile, some airstrips in the delta may be closed as water has affected them and some camps in the delta having also been closed because of the water. Camps have also become inaccessible by road from airstrips and they have resorted to using boats to ferry guests in and out

Source: Ngami Times

[come-along.nl]

So the flood is here and its BIG. I have been asked several times whether the flood has peaked in Maun yet. Unfortunately - not. One can clearly see it in the Island Safari water levels graph, which is updated daily (all hail Desmond Green). And the peaking is not going to happen very soon. I've done some calculations to determine when can we expect peak in Maun, and how high the peak is likely to be, and results are presented below.

When will water levels peak in Maun?

The answer is: most likely on August 15th, and with 67% confidence between the 1st and 30th of August. How did I get it? Here is how:

Read on: http://www.orc.ub.bw/datacat/thamalakane2010.php

[come-along.nl]

Maun yesterday:

Water EVERYWHERE and still rising every day. Toteng bridge ( 60 KM towards Ghanzi) is flooded and likely to collapse. Most of Maun wildlifeeducational park is under water, The Bridge backpackers is an island, and lots of houses built in floodplains are surrounded by sand bags.

Here some pictures: http://www.jacanaent.com/Photos/Flood2010/!Flood10.htm

source: overland forum